Genius Sports Has Upside Levers, Says Analyst

Posted on: August 30, 2024, 06:05h. 

Last updated on: August 30, 2024, 06:05h.

Todd Shriber Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

Somewhat quietly, Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) is one of this year’s best-performing sports wagering stocks as highlighted by a year-to-date gain of 23.30%. That includes a 12.72% rally over the past month.

Genius
A slide from a Genius Sports investor presentation. An analyst says the stock could build already considerable 2024 upside. (Image: Genius Sports)

Some analysts believe the sports betting data provider has more upside in store for investors. In a note to clients today, B. Riley analyst David Bain reiterated a “buy” rating on Genius with a $10 price target, implying upside of 31.2% from today’s close.

On its 2Q24 earnings call, GENI stated it expects 20%-plus revenue growth for the ‘foreseeable future,’” wrote Bain. “However, calendar year (CY) 25E consensus sales growth is 14%. 20% growth from CY24E estimates implies an additional $29M of CY25E revenue versus consensus. Using GENI’s general midpoint flow-through guidance implies an additional $12M of EBITDA, 11% higher than CY25E consensus EBITDA estimates.”

With the arrival of football season, Genius could further be in focus because it is the exclusive provider of the NFL’s real-time, official play-by-play statistics, which are in high demand by sportsbook operators because football is the most wagered on sport in the US.

Genius Sports Could Notch Near-Term Upside

The arrival of football season is seen as a boon for a variety of gaming companies and while Genius is a business-to-business firm, expectations that bettors will wager more than ever before on the NFL could be a legitimate catalyst for the already high-flying stock.

Expectations that in-game or live betting will surge this football season could also be a spark for Genius. There’s credibility to that thesis as highlighted by news out earlier this week that DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is acquiring Simplebet in an effort to boost its live micro-betting offerings.

“We estimate a 500 bps mix shift to U.S. OSB NFL-only in-play from pre-match wagering equates to an additional $3M of EBITDA to GENI. Operators have been transparent about increasing the in-play mix of betting with additional propositions, placing in-play betting opportunities, and using low-latency technology (including GENI’s BetVision),” noted Bain.

The analyst added that markets may not yet be fully appreciating the potential positive impact in-game wagering expansion could have on Genius shares.

Genius Sports Has Other Catalysts

In July, Genius announced a deal with X (formerly Twitter), one of the largest social media platforms in the world. Under the terms of the agreement, Genius will leverage its ad-tech products to deliver advertisements specific to conversations taking place on X.

With more media rights negotiations coming up, ad-tech could be unheralded catalyst for Genius shares while diversifying the company’s revenue stream.

“While more difficult to quantify, we believe many of GENI’s new ad tech offerings — ads placed directly into live streams or a self-service platform offering GENI’s unique data for advertisers to use in ad buys (100% margin business for GENI) — are potential levers for media growth relative to consensus. We believe some U.S. take-rate negotiations will benefit GENI’s media division with higher go-forward commitments,” concluded Bain.